This calls for innovations in policy making and innovative measures. This requires a longer planning scope and a critical review of the current flood risk management strategy and the measures and policy instruments applied. Moreover, climate change does not stop in 2100, but may well carry on or worsen in centuries yet to come. Also it was questioned whether the current policy – of flood protection – is the most desirable in view of the many uncertainties about future developments and the possibly huge consequences of a flood disaster. In this report, we successively discuss measures and instruments aimed at:Ģ gaining control over the flooding process and the resulting exposure characteristics, asģ reducing the vulnerability of the flood-prone areas.Įarlier analyses of the development of flood risk in the 21st century revealed that socioeconomic development is by far the most important cause of increasing risks. Įspecially in low-lying deltaic areas, a sound adaptation policy is urgently needed, because relying on a global mitigation policy for climate change is way too risky. The coastline has an angle α=52 o with respect to the coast, and therefore the angle of the design hurricane track is assumed equal to 52 o +90 o =142 o. It is assumed that the most unfavourable conditions occur when the hurricane comes from SE, and particularly when it attacks in direction perpendicular to the coastline. In accordance to the determination of hurricane return periods, the simulation is skipped, and an assumption is made instead.

The design hurricane track could be safely extracted with a simulation model and the use of probabilistic methods. This parameter is affected by the wind set-up and pressure set-up, whose values are related to the hurricane track (see figure 2.1). The design boundary condition associated with the hurricane track is the maximum water level. However this information is not as relevant to the design process as the hurricane direction that causes the most unfavourable design conditions at the project site. 10: Typical hurricane tracks per month (NOAA) Based on the tracks, it is safe to assume that the dominant directions of hurricanes striking Galveston are S, SE and E.

Hurricane track com